Of the 33 champions in 29 years, seven began the season ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, with four each ranked No. 1, No. 4 and No. 5. Teams ranked No. 3 in the preseason have claimed as many titles (two) as teams ranked No. 14 in that span. Though most champions start in the top five, three of the past 33 champions have done so from outside the preseason top 15:
- In 1990, Georgia Tech went from unranked to No. 2 in the AP Poll. It won the coaches’ vote and split the title with AP No. 1 Colorado.
- Despite going six years without finishing in the top 25, Oklahoma opened the 2000 season, its second under Bob Stoops, ranked No. 19 and finished 13-0 to win the BCS title.
- With the addition of Cam Newton, Auburn went from preseason No. 22 to an undefeated national championship in 2010.
No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Clemson will be good. They probably will not finish No. 1 and No. 2.
The only preseason AP No. 1 team to finish unranked since 1989 was USC under Lane Kiffin in 2012. The only preseason AP No. 2 team to end up outside the poll in that span was 1994 Notre Dame under Lou Holtz. The top two teams in the preseason have each finished in the top five over 61 percent of the time and in the top 10 over 82 percent of the time.
The Crimson Tide and Tigers have been the consensus choice for Nos. 1 and 2 in the preseason by an overwhelming margin. They will likely both end up in the final top 10, but it’s unlikely that they’ll actually start and finish as the top two teams. The consensus national championship game prediction is rarely right, even when it seems like the obvious choice.
An average of 5.5 teams ranked in the preseason top 10 finish in the top 10. An average of 1.6 preseason top-10 teams end up unranked.
Teams ranked No. 8 or better in the preseason have finished in the top 10 more than 50 percent of the time. No. 1 (86.2 percent) and No. 2 (82.8 percent) are the only ones above 62.1 percent, however.
Only 15 of 58 teams ranked No. 9 or 10 in the preseason have finished in the top 10. In other words, teams like No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Penn State this year typically fall out of the top 10 by the end of the season, although they have still finished in the top 25 about two-thirds of the time.
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